Daily projection workflow

Find the lines the market got wrong.

Mispriced compares projection-driven fair numbers to market prices, then separates real betting value from noise. No forced picks, no mystery record, just a sharper workflow from model read to tracked result.

Market edgesSee where the model disagrees with the current number.
Projection-driven playsSignals start with matchup context, not hunches.
Transparent resultsOfficial graded plays roll into Results with clear filters.
Performance Snapshot

Real results, graded only.

The Home snapshot uses the same official Last 30 Days performance logic as Results. Open Watching or Locked plays are not included, so the preview stays tied to settled outcomes.

Units Last 30
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Win Rate Last 30
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ROI Last 30
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Graded Bets Last 30
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Why Mispriced

A model board built for decisions.

The product is organized around the actual betting workflow: study projections, identify market disagreement, track active signals, and audit the record.

Market edge
Fair numbers are placed next to market prices.

Edges are easier to interpret when the projection, price, market type, and status are shown together.

No forced picks
Empty boards are allowed.

If the model does not find enough value, the board should say so. Passing is part of the system.

Transparent record
Performance is separated from current plays.

Results focuses on graded history, market splits, and timeframe filters without mixing in open signals.

Workflow

From projection to official record.

Mispriced keeps the public workflow clean while admin controls stay behind authentication.

01

Read the matchup

Use Models for team context, projected score, market values, and sport-specific details.

02

Find disagreement

Compare the model price to the market and focus on the signals with the clearest edge.

03

Track active plays

Use Plays for Watching signals and official Locked plays on the current board.

04

Review outcomes

Use Results for graded history, units, ROI, win rate, and market breakdowns.

Sample Plays

How signals are framed.

These hardcoded examples explain the format. They are not live top edges and are not official plays.

SportSignalMarketEdgePriceContext
MLBBraves MLFull Game ML+6.8%-118Starter confirmed
NHLHurricanes MLMoneyline+7.4%-125Goalie confirmed
MLBPadres F5 UnderFirst 5 Total+5.1%-105Lineup projected
CBBMichigan -5.5Spread+4.4%-110Example
Samples explain the signal format. Plays is the source for active plays, and Results is the source for graded performance.
Start with the board

Pick the right surface for the question.

Models explains the number. Plays shows what is active. Results shows what happened. Tools lets you test a custom price.

Tools

Calculators and simulators.

Manual analysis tools for checking prices, alternate lines, and what-if model scenarios. Tool outputs are informational and do not affect the official record.

Line Value Calculator

Compare a custom betting line and American odds against the current model reference. Calculator results are informational and are not added to the official record.

This tool does not create official plays, write to Supabase, sync to Plays, or change tracking lifecycle status.

CBB Simulator is for manual scenario testing. It does not change official model projections or tracked plays.
NHL Simulator is for manual scenario testing. It does not change official model projections or tracked plays.
Plays

Current board.

Active model signals and official locked plays for today's slate.

Watching plays are model signals that have not reached final lock criteria. Locked plays are official tracked plays. Line movement after lock does not remove a play. Material pitcher, lineup, weather, or postponement changes may pull or void a play.
Sport
Today's slate uses current sync or created time and is separate from historical performance filters.
Active Plays

Highest current edges

Open model signals and locked official plays from the current active board.

0 plays
SportGamePlayMarketOddsEdgeEVStatus
Current Board

Today's tracked plays

Watching signals are still being monitored. Locked plays are official and count toward performance.

0 watching | 0 locked
GamePlayPriceEdgeEVStateUpdated
Results

Performance and graded history.

Review official graded plays by timeframe, sport, market, and result.

Sport
Performance Timeframe
Performance

Market results

Graded plays inside the selected timeframe, grouped by sport and market.

0 graded
Results

Graded history

Official results by game date, including price movement and profit or loss.

0 graded
DateSportGamePlayOddsInitialClosingResultP/LStatus